Sturm Graz Wvs
VfL Wolfsburg W
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa Cup - Women · 9/30/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VfL Wolfsburg W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sturm Graz W 0-2 VfL Wolfsburg W
Original prediction
VfL Wolfsburg W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 21:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 14.76 | 6.1% | 27.1% | 21.0 pts |
| Draw | 7.94 | 11.3% | 23.5% | 12.2 pts |
| Away | 1.09 | 82.6% | 49.4% | -33.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-33.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
VfL Wolfsburg W
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
VfL Wolfsburg W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60