Sturm Grazvs
Ried
COMPLETEDAustria · Bundesliga · 10/25/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sturm Graz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sturm Graz 2-2 Ried
Original prediction
Sturm Graz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 55.7% | 57.4% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 23.0% | 20.9% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 4.39 | 21.3% | 21.7% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.06 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Sturm Graz
Probability
57.4%
Model confidence
57.4%
Sturm Graz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60