Sturm Grazvs
Rennes
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 9/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rennes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sturm Graz 0-0 Rennes
Original prediction
Rennes
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.76 | 25.1% | 23.0% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 24.7% | 23.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 50.2% | 53.3% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.83 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Rennes
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Rennes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Sturm GrazWWLDW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
RennesWWWDL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Sturm GrazRennes
22.2Attack66.7
50.0Defence54.2
22.2Form62.5
34.5Power61.2
0.98xG1.87