Sturm Grazvs
Marseille
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/22/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sturm Graz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sturm Graz 1-0 Marseille
Original prediction
Sturm Graz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.94 | 24.0% | 38.3% | 14.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.6% | 26.7% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 50.4% | 35.0% | -15.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Sturm Graz
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Sturm Graz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80