Sturm Grazvs
Lask Linz
COMPLETEDAustria · Bundesliga · 9/13/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lask Linz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sturm Graz 2-1 Lask Linz
Original prediction
Lask Linz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.35 | 27.9% | 25.8% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 24.1% | 25.4% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 48.0% | 48.8% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Lask Linz
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Lask Linz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 17 · GA 4 · avg 3.40/0.80