UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League
Tuesday, 21 July 2026Last updated 10:14
Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz

Home
WD
40
Full time
Heart Of Midlothian

Heart Of Midlothian

Away
W
Merkur Arena
GoalVio prediction
44% confidence
Sturm Graz(44%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Sturm Graz
44%
Draw
24%
Heart Of Midlothian
32%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Sturm Graz
54
Heart Of Midlothian
73
Defence
Sturm Graz
66
Heart Of Midlothian
66
Momentum
Sturm Graz
67
Heart Of Midlothian
100
Danger (xG)
Sturm Graz
1.35
Heart Of Midlothian
1.80
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Sturm Graz)
1.35
avg per match
xG for (Heart Of Midlothian)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Sturm Graz)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Heart Of Midlothian)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
WDLW
Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
WLW

Probability breakdown

44% confidence
Sturm Graz44%
Draw24%
Heart Of Midlothian32%

Sturm Graz leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Sturm Graz head into this in UEFA Champions League fixture at Merkur Arena in mixed form (WD), while Heart Of Midlothian arrive in mixed form (W). Sturm Graz have a 50% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 100% for Heart Of Midlothian over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Sturm Graz (66/100) and Heart Of Midlothian (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Sturm Graz have won 2 of their last 4 home fixtures, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game at home. Heart Of Midlothian have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per away game.

Sturm Graz have generated 0.85 xG per game recently while conceding 2.29 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

There is no head-to-head data between Sturm Graz and Heart Of Midlothian in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Sturm Graz to win with 44% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Sturm Graz 4408%, Draw 2432%, Heart Of Midlothian 3160%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz

W
vs Pogon Szczecin
15 Jul 2026
10
D
vs FK Košice
3 Jul 2026
22
L
vs LNZ Cherkasy
30 Jun 2026
26
W
vs Brann
29 Jan 2026
10
xG 0.8
Heart Of Midlothian

Heart Of Midlothian

W
vs Rayo Vallecano
17 Jul 2026
21
L
@ Celtic
16 May 2026
13
W
vs Falkirk
13 May 2026
20

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian?

GoalVio's model predicts Sturm Graz to win with 44% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more