Sturm Grazvs
Grazer AK
COMPLETEDAustria · Bundesliga · 10/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sturm Graz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sturm Graz 6-1 Grazer AK
Original prediction
Sturm Graz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 52.8% | 61.9% | 9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.9% | 22.1% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.19 | 22.3% | 16.0% | -6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.2–014%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Sturm Graz
Probability
61.9%
Model confidence
61.9%
Sturm Graz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80