Sturm Grazvs
Floridsdorfer AC
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sturm Graz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sturm Graz 3-1 Floridsdorfer AC
Original prediction
Sturm Graz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 66.0% | 45.4% | -20.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.94 | 18.4% | 26.9% | 8.5 pts |
| Away | 5.81 | 15.6% | 27.7% | 12.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Sturm Graz
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Sturm Graz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80