Sturm Graz IIvs
SV Kapfenberg
COMPLETEDAustria · 2. Liga · 10/18/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sturm Graz II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sturm Graz II 0-2 SV Kapfenberg
Original prediction
Sturm Graz II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 49.8% | 58.6% | 8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.7% | 19.0% | -4.7 pts |
| Away | 3.45 | 26.5% | 22.4% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–26%
Predicted outcome
Sturm Graz II
Probability
58.6%
Model confidence
58.6%
Sturm Graz II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 13 · avg 2.40/2.60
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40