Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs
Sunday, 19 July 2026Last updated 12:42
Sturm Graz II

Sturm Graz II

Home
L
12
Full time
Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Away
WD
GoalVio prediction
Friendly match
Very hard to predict

Friendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.

Sturm Graz II35%
Draw35%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC30%
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Sturm Graz II
35%
Draw
35%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
30%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Sturm Graz II
34
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
54
Defence
Sturm Graz II
27
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
82
Momentum
Sturm Graz II
0
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
67
Danger (xG)
Sturm Graz II
0.90
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1.35
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 0.92 xG for Sturm Graz II and 1.89 xG for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Sturm Graz II's projected xG of 0.92 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 0 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Al-Hilal Saudi FC's Defensive Stability Score (82) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (34). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.82 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 0 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Sturm Graz II's Defensive Stability (27) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's (82) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Sturm Graz II)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Al-Hilal Saudi FC)
1.35
avg per match
xG against (Sturm Graz II)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Al-Hilal Saudi FC)
0.45
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Sturm Graz IISturm Graz II
LL
Al-Hilal Saudi FCAl-Hilal Saudi FC
WD

Probability breakdown

36% confidence
Sturm Graz II35%
Draw35%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC30%

Sturm Graz II leads with 35% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Sturm Graz II Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Sturm Graz II host Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Friendlies Clubs. Sturm Graz II have recorded LLLLLL in recent matches while Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrive with a run of WDWWWW. These sides have met 1 times recently, averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Why GoalVio backs this

The xG model projects 0.92 for Sturm Graz II and 1.89 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The gap of 0.97 is not large enough to decisively separate the sides — neither team is creating chances at a level that justifies a clear winner projection.

Biggest risk: The draw projection is inherently fragile — a single moment of quality from either side could produce a winner. The model sees no clear favourite, which means the actual result is highly sensitive to in-game events and individual quality.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Sturm Graz II

Sturm Graz II

L
vs Budapest Honved
3 Jul 2026
12
L
vs Rapid Wien II
14 May 2026
01
Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

W
vs NEOM
16 May 2026
20
D
@ Al-Nassr
12 May 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Sturm Graz II vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?

GoalVio's model predicts Sturm Graz II to win with 36% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz II vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Sturm Graz II vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sturm Graz II vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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