Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Struga · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Struga 2-0 Aresimi, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Struga 6-0 Aresimi
Original prediction
Struga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.20 | 74.8% | 72.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.35 | 16.8% | 17.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 10.66 | 8.4% | 10.2% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Projected Score
Struga 2–0 Aresimi
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Struga
Probability
72.2%
Model confidence
72.2%
Struga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StrugaDWWWL
GF 18 · GA 5 · avg 3.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AresimiDLDWW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
StrugaAresimi
61.9Attack28.6
76.2Defence38.1
66.7Form38.1
67.9Power37.5
2.29xG0.54