1. Division1. Division
Saturday, 27 June 2026Last updated 12:33
Stromsgodset

Stromsgodset

Home
L
22
Full time
ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb

Away
L
Marienlyst Stadion
GoalVio prediction
68% confidence
Stromsgodset(65%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
Stromsgodset
65%
Draw
18%
ODD Ballklubb
17%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Stromsgodset
94
ODD Ballklubb
34
Defence
Stromsgodset
1
ODD Ballklubb
6
Momentum
Stromsgodset
0
ODD Ballklubb
0
Danger (xG)
Stromsgodset
2.70
ODD Ballklubb
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.55 xG for Stromsgodset and 1.17 xG for ODD Ballklubb — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.38), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.The attack-versus-defence matchup supports both teams scoring. Stromsgodset's Attack Score (94) exceeds ODD Ballklubb's Defensive Stability (6), and ODD Ballklubb's attack (34) similarly tests Stromsgodset's defence (1). Neither backline is dominant enough to prevent the other side from scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 2.72 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. The xG distribution places the most weight on scorelines that clear 2.5, though the margin above the threshold is not large.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Stromsgodset's Attack Score (94) vs ODD Ballklubb's Defensive Stability (6) and ODD Ballklubb's attack (34) vs Stromsgodset's defence (1) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Stromsgodset)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (ODD Ballklubb)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Stromsgodset)
3.60
avg per match
xG against (ODD Ballklubb)
2.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
StromsgodsetStromsgodset
LDDW
ODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb
LDDLW

Probability breakdown

68% confidence
Stromsgodset65%
Draw18%
ODD Ballklubb17%

Stromsgodset leads with 65% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Stromsgodset Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

Stromsgodset take on ODD Ballklubb in 1. Division.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.55 expected goals for Stromsgodset against 1.17 for ODD Ballklubb — a marginal but consistent advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Stromsgodset's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 58% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk ODD Ballklubb have won 0 of their last 5 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Stromsgodset carry the stronger underlying metrics, ODD Ballklubb's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Stromsgodset are generating a consistent xG advantage — 1.55 projected against 1.17 for ODD Ballklubb. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.38 is the clearest signal in the model that Stromsgodset are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The head-to-head record shows ODD Ballklubb have won 5 of the last 10 meetings — a competitive history that suggests Stromsgodset's statistical advantage does not always translate into results against this specific opponent.

Risk factors

  • Stromsgodset have been conceding 1.92 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • These sides have drawn 4 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.38 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.

Head to head

Stromsgodset 0Draws 10 ODD Ballklubb
Avg goals: 4.0BTTS in 1/1
27 Jun 2026
Stromsgodset
D22
ODD Ballklubb

Recent form

Stromsgodset

Stromsgodset

L
@ hodd
4 Jul 2026
34
D
vs ODD Ballklubb
27 Jun 2026
22
D
@ Kongsvinger
21 Jun 2026
44
W
vs Ranheim
16 May 2026
54
ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb

L
vs Haugesund
5 Jul 2026
13
D
@ Stromsgodset
27 Jun 2026
22
D
vs hodd
21 Jun 2026
00
L
vs Moss
16 May 2026
23
W
@ Egersund
11 May 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?

GoalVio's model predicts Stromsgodset to win with 68% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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