Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Strommen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Strommen 6-1 Asane
Original prediction
Strommen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 50.4% | 46.2% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 23.0% | 22.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 26.6% | 31.0% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.83 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–16%
Predicted outcome
Strommen
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Strommen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StrommenDDLDL
GF 9 · GA 19 · avg 1.80/3.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
AsaneWLLDD
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
StrommenAsane
53.3Attack48.0
24.0Defence28.0
36.0Form30.7
39.8Power37.4
2.53xG2.02