Stroginovs
Zenit Penza
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 3 · 9/13/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Strogino · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Strogino 3-0 Zenit Penza
Original prediction
Strogino
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 37.9% | 47.2% | 9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.5% | 24.8% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.6% | 28.0% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Strogino
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Strogino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00