CupCup
Friday, 24 July 2026Last updated 12:16
Strání

Strání

Home
L
12
Full time
Vsetín

Vsetín

Away
L
Stadion na Zelnickach
GoalVio prediction
44% confidence
Strání(44%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Strání
44%
Draw
24%
Vsetín
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Strání
94
Vsetín
34
Defence
Strání
1
Vsetín
27
Momentum
Strání
0
Vsetín
0
Danger (xG)
Strání
2.70
Vsetín
0.90
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.84 xG for Strání and 1.36 xG for Vsetín — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.48), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.The attack-versus-defence matchup supports both teams scoring. Strání's Attack Score (94) exceeds Vsetín's Defensive Stability (27), and Vsetín's attack (34) similarly tests Strání's defence (1). Neither backline is dominant enough to prevent the other side from scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 3.20 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating elevated xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Strání's Attack Score (94) vs Vsetín's Defensive Stability (27) and Vsetín's attack (34) vs Strání's defence (1) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Strání)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Vsetín)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Strání)
3.60
avg per match
xG against (Vsetín)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
StráníStrání
LD
VsetínVsetín
L

Probability breakdown

44% confidence
Strání44%
Draw24%
Vsetín33%

Strání leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Strání Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Strání host Vsetín in Cup. Strání have recorded WWLWLL in recent matches while Vsetín arrive with a run of DLLLLW. These sides have met 9 times recently, averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.84 expected goals for Strání against 1.36 for Vsetín — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Strání's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 57% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 📈 Recent Form Strání arrive in better recent form — 3 wins from 10 matches (WWLWLL) against Vsetín's 1. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.

Why GoalVio backs this

Strání are generating a consistent xG advantage — 1.84 projected against 1.36 for Vsetín. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.48 is the clearest signal in the model that Strání are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The head-to-head record shows Vsetín have won 4 of the last 9 meetings — a competitive history that suggests Strání's statistical advantage does not always translate into results against this specific opponent.

Risk factors

  • Strání have been conceding 1.79 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • These sides have drawn 3 of their last 9 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.

Recent form

Strání

Strání

L
@ Piešťany
10 Jul 2026
34
D
vs Břeclav
16 May 2026
00
Vsetín

Vsetín

L
vs Unie Hlubina
16 May 2026
12

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Strání vs Vsetín?

GoalVio's model predicts Strání to win with 44% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Strání vs Vsetín?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Strání vs Vsetín?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Strání vs Vsetín?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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