Stratford Townvs
Alvechurch
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern Central · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alvechurch · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (15%), 0-3 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stratford Town 4-4 Alvechurch
Original prediction
Alvechurch
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.45 | 26.2% | 12.4% | -13.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.4% | 17.9% | -9.5 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 46.4% | 69.7% | 23.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.30 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
23.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–215%
- 2.0–312%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Alvechurch
Probability
69.7%
Model confidence
69.7%
Alvechurch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00