Strasbourgvs
Paris Saint Germain
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 10/17/2026, 3:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris Saint Germain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Strasbourg 1-3 Paris Saint Germain
Original prediction
Paris Saint Germain
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.58 | 14.4% | 28.2% | 13.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.38 | 17.7% | 21.6% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 1.40 | 67.9% | 50.1% | -17.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Paris Saint Germain
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Paris Saint Germain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00