Strasbourgvs
Monaco
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 9/12/2026, 3:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monaco · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Strasbourg 1-1 Monaco
Original prediction
Monaco
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.28 | 29.0% | 32.3% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 25.1% | 25.4% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 46.0% | 42.2% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.80 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Monaco
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Monaco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StrasbourgWWLDL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MonacoWWWWW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
StrasbourgMonaco
88.9Attack55.6
22.2Defence88.9
66.7Form100.0
57.8Power85.2
1.49xG1.76