Strasbourgvs
Lens
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 8/29/2026, 3:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lens · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Strasbourg 2-1 Lens
Original prediction
Lens
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.61 | 26.3% | 29.9% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 26.3% | 26.9% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 47.4% | 43.2% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Lens
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Lens has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StrasbourgLDLLL
GF 6 · GA 16 · avg 1.20/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LensWWLDW
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
StrasbourgLens
0.0Attack100.0
0.0Defence33.3
0.0Form100.0
7.0Power80.3
1.28xG1.72