Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stranraer · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stranraer 3-1 Dumbarton
Original prediction
Stranraer
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 58.7% | 49.8% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 22.8% | 26.7% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 4.90 | 18.5% | 23.6% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Stranraer
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Stranraer has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StranraerWLWWD
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
DumbartonLWLDL
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
StranraerDumbarton
50.0Attack22.2
66.7Defence38.9
55.6Form33.3
58.0Power35.5
1.90xG0.72