Strabane Athleticvs
Newry City AFC
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 9/11/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newry City AFC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Strabane Athletic 2-2 Newry City AFC
Original prediction
Newry City AFC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.75 | 24.2% | 32.8% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.8% | 26.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.82 | 50.0% | 41.2% | -8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.52 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Newry City AFC
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Newry City AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80