Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stotfold · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Stotfold are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDWL), averaging 0.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Gorleston are 0W-0D-4L in their last 4 (LLLL), averaging 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 9 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Stotfold hold an 8.3-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the FA Trophy, while Stotfold holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Stotfold
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Stotfold has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.50/2.50