Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jonsered · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Åstorp 2-0 Jonsered
Original prediction
Jonsered
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.2% | 31.6% | -13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 23.9% | 21.0% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 30.9% | 47.4% | 16.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Jonsered
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Jonsered has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ÅstorpLWLWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
JonseredWLWDW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ÅstorpJonsered
41.3Attack60.3
42.9Defence46.0
36.5Form60.3
42.7Power57.0
1.40xG2.03