Åstorpvs
Galtabacks
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Västra Götaland · 10/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Åstorp · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Åstorp 4-0 Galtabacks
Original prediction
Åstorp
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 53.6% | 41.5% | -12.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.2% | 21.4% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.88 | 23.2% | 37.2% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Åstorp
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Åstorp has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 14 · GA 15 · avg 2.80/3.00