Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stord · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-2 (7%), 3-2 (6%), 4-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stord 5-2 Gneist
Original prediction
Stord
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 54.0% | 57.6% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.16 | 21.5% | 17.1% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 3.66 | 24.5% | 25.4% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–27%
- 2.3–26%
- 3.4–36%
Predicted outcome
Stord
Probability
57.6%
Model confidence
57.6%
Stord has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StordWLWLD
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
GneistLLLDW
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
StordGneist
63.8Attack56.1
13.0Defence0.0
34.8Form22.7
39.6Power29.6
4.25xG2.77