Stoke City U21vs
Chelsea U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 10/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stoke City U21 1-2 Chelsea U21
Original prediction
Chelsea U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 19:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.26 | 17.2% | 32.8% | 15.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.23 | 17.3% | 21.8% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 1.38 | 65.5% | 45.5% | -20.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–28%
- 2.1–17%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Chelsea U21
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Chelsea U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60