Stockton Townvs
United of Manchester
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stockton Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stockton Town 2-2 United of Manchester
Original prediction
Stockton Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.1% | 42.1% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.6% | 24.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.97 | 30.2% | 33.1% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.50 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Stockton Town
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Stockton Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00