Stockton Townvs
Bury
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/6/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bury · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-3 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stockton Town 1-0 Bury
Original prediction
Bury
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.82 | 23.6% | 17.8% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.7% | 20.6% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 52.7% | 61.6% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Bury
Probability
61.6%
Model confidence
61.6%
Bury has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 22 · GA 5 · avg 4.40/1.00