Stockton Townvs
AFC Emley
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stockton Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stockton Town 1-3 AFC Emley
Original prediction
Stockton Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 55.9% | 55.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.0% | 21.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 4.22 | 21.1% | 22.9% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Stockton Town
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
55.4%
Stockton Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60