Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stocksund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stocksund 1-1 Järfälla
Original prediction
Stocksund
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.0% | 46.1% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.6% | 24.9% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 32.4% | 29.0% | -3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.83 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Stocksund
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Stocksund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StocksundLLLWL
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
JärfällaLLWLL
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
StocksundJärfälla
83.3Attack33.3
16.7Defence0.0
50.0Form0.0
53.0Power15.3
2.32xG1.43