Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arlanda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stocksund 2-3 Arlanda
Original prediction
Arlanda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.97 | 30.7% | 32.0% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.9% | 25.6% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 45.4% | 42.5% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Arlanda
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Arlanda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StocksundLLWDL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ArlandaWLLDW
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
StocksundArlanda
100.0Attack100.0
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form100.0
32.0Power88.7
1.57xG1.97