Stockport Countyvs
Barnsley
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stockport County · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stockport County 3-1 Barnsley
Original prediction
Stockport County
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 65.9% | 59.3% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.88 | 19.0% | 22.0% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 6.18 | 15.0% | 18.7% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
Stockport County
Probability
59.3%
Model confidence
59.3%
Stockport County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 8 · GA 15 · avg 1.60/3.00