Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stevenage · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stevenage 1-0 Wigan
Original prediction
Stevenage
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 44.6% | 51.5% | 6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.9% | 26.3% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.51 | 26.6% | 22.2% | -4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Stevenage
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Stevenage has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StevenageWWLWW
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
WiganWLDLW
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
StevenageWigan
52.4Attack23.8
61.9Defence42.9
42.9Form19.0
52.5Power30.9
1.89xG0.68