Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stevenage · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Stevenage are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Watford are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (WLD), averaging 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Stevenage hold a 35.0-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the League Cup, while Stevenage holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Stevenage
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Stevenage has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.67/0.67