Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stevenage · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Stevenage are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWDLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Walsall are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Stevenage hold a 22.0-point power-rating edge (54.9 v 32.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.0% in the EFL Trophy, while Stevenage holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Stevenage
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
Stevenage has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 0.40/0.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00