Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stevenage · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stevenage 3-0 Plymouth
Original prediction
Stevenage
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 35.6% | 37.1% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 28.0% | 26.7% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 36.4% | 36.2% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Stevenage
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Stevenage has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StevenageLWWWL
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PlymouthLWDWL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
StevenagePlymouth
44.4Attack54.5
63.0Defence57.6
44.4Form57.6
51.4Power57.5
1.19xG1.16