Stevenagevs
Milton Keynes Dons
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stevenage · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stevenage 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons
Original prediction
Stevenage
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 46.7% | 53.9% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.1% | 25.2% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.70 | 25.1% | 20.9% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Stevenage
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
Stevenage has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00