Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stevenage · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stevenage 2-1 Luton
Original prediction
Stevenage
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.09 | 30.2% | 43.3% | 13.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.4% | 24.2% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 42.4% | 32.5% | -9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Stevenage
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Stevenage has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StevenageWDDLL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LutonDWLLD
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
StevenageLuton
60.0Attack73.3
60.0Defence26.7
40.0Form53.3
52.5Power53.0
2.08xG1.48