Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stevenage · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Stevenage are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Doncaster are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Stevenage hold a 9.4-point power-rating edge (54.9 v 45.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.2% in the League One, while Stevenage holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Stevenage
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
17.2%
Stevenage has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20