Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stevenage · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stevenage 2-2 Doncaster
Original prediction
Stevenage
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 41.2% | 38.7% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 29.2% | 28.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 29.6% | 32.4% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.20 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Stevenage
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Stevenage has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StevenageLLDWW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DoncasterLDLDL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
StevenageDoncaster
33.3Attack16.7
50.0Defence66.7
16.7Form16.7
36.5Power36.5
1.25xG1.10