GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 8/20/2024, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Stevenage · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Stevenage are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Crystal Palace U21 are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Stevenage hold a 38.2-point power-rating edge (54.9 v 16.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 65.1% in the EFL Trophy, while Stevenage holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 72% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Stevenage

Probability

65.1%

Model confidence

65.1%

Stevenage has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

StevenageLLWWW

GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Crystal Palace U21WLLLW

GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
StevenageCrystal Palace U21
66.7Attack22.2
55.6Defence11.1
44.4Form0.0
54.9Power16.7
2.67xG1.17
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