Stevenagevs
Birmingham
COMPLETEDEngland · EFL Trophy · 2/4/2025, 7:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Birmingham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Stevenage are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Birmingham are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Birmingham hold a 19.6-point power-rating edge (54.9 v 74.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.0% in the EFL Trophy, while Birmingham holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Birmingham
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80