GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 2/4/2025, 7:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Birmingham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2

Highconfidence

Stevenage are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Birmingham are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Birmingham hold a 19.6-point power-rating edge (54.9 v 74.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.0% in the EFL Trophy, while Birmingham holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Birmingham

Probability

57.0%

Model confidence

57.0%

Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

StevenageWWWWL

GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BirminghamLWWDW

GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
StevenageBirmingham
66.7Attack79.2
55.6Defence70.8
44.4Form79.2
54.9Power74.6
1.20xG2.24
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