Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Österlen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Österlen 5-0 Torns
Original prediction
Österlen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 54.2% | 66.9% | 12.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.20 | 22.1% | 16.4% | -5.6 pts |
| Away | 3.90 | 23.8% | 16.7% | -7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Österlen
Probability
66.9%
Model confidence
66.9%
Österlen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ÖsterlenLDDLW
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
TornsLLLWL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ÖsterlenTorns
51.4Attack43.1
43.1Defence8.3
41.7Form29.2
46.0Power30.0
3.06xG1.32