Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Österlen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Österlen 6-0 Karlshamn
Original prediction
Österlen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 56.9% | 65.3% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.1% | 18.6% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 4.31 | 21.0% | 16.1% | -5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Österlen
Probability
65.3%
Model confidence
65.3%
Österlen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ÖsterlenLDLWW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
KarlshamnWLLLD
GF 7 · GA 15 · avg 1.40/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
ÖsterlenKarlshamn
43.9Attack36.8
49.1Defence22.8
43.9Form19.3
47.4Power29.0
2.35xG0.99