GGOALVIO

Scotland · League Cup · 7/15/2023, 2:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Stenhousemuir · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Stenhousemuir are 1W-0D-2L in their last 3 (LLW), averaging 2.33 scored and 2.67 conceded, while ST Johnstone are 1W-1D-0L in their last 2 (WD), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 5 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Stenhousemuir hold a 2.8-point power-rating edge (66.3 v 63.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.5% in the League Cup, while Stenhousemuir holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Stenhousemuir

Probability

37.5%

Model confidence

37.5%

Stenhousemuir has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

StenhousemuirLLW

GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 2.33/2.67

BTTS 3/3O2.5 3/3
ST JohnstoneWD

GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.50

BTTS 1/2O2.5 1/2
StenhousemuirST Johnstone
50.0Attack50.0
75.0Defence83.3
66.7Form58.3
66.3Power63.5
1.40xG1.16
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