League CupLeague Cup
Saturday, 25 July 2026Last updated 10:10
Stenhousemuir

Stenhousemuir

Home
LW
00
Full time
Livingston

Livingston

Away
W
Ochilview Park
GoalVio prediction
39% confidence
Livingston(36%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Win probability
Stenhousemuir
39%
Draw
25%
Livingston
36%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Stenhousemuir
54
Livingston
73
Defence
Stenhousemuir
82
Livingston
91
Momentum
Stenhousemuir
50
Livingston
100
Danger (xG)
Stenhousemuir
1.35
Livingston
1.80
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Stenhousemuir)
1.35
avg per match
xG for (Livingston)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Stenhousemuir)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Livingston)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
StenhousemuirStenhousemuir
LW
LivingstonLivingston
WD

Probability breakdown

39% confidence
Stenhousemuir39%
Draw25%
Livingston36%

Stenhousemuir leads with 39% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Stenhousemuir head into this in League Cup fixture at Ochilview Park in mixed form (LW), while Livingston arrive in mixed form (W). Stenhousemuir have a 50% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 100% for Livingston over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Stenhousemuir (82/100) and Livingston (91/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Stenhousemuir have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 1 home games. They average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per home match. Livingston have won 1 of their last 2 away fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Stenhousemuir and Livingston in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Livingston to win with 39% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Stenhousemuir 3912%, Draw 2532%, Livingston 3556%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Stenhousemuir

Stenhousemuir

L
vs Alloa Athletic
16 May 2026
01
W
@ Alloa Athletic
13 May 2026
30
Livingston

Livingston

W
@ Brechin
14 Jul 2026
20
D
@ Dundee Utd
12 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Stenhousemuir vs Livingston?

GoalVio's model predicts Livingston to win with 39% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Stenhousemuir vs Livingston?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Stenhousemuir vs Livingston?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Stenhousemuir vs Livingston?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more