Stenhousemuirvs
Arbroath
COMPLETEDScotland · Championship · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stenhousemuir · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Stenhousemuir 1-0 Arbroath, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Stenhousemuir 1-0 Arbroath
Original prediction
Stenhousemuir
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 47.7% | 57.0% | 9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.9% | 25.3% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.88 | 23.4% | 17.7% | -5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.4 pts
Projected Score
Stenhousemuir 1–0 Arbroath
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Stenhousemuir
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Stenhousemuir has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StenhousemuirWLWWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
ArbroathLDWWD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
StenhousemuirArbroath
55.6Attack22.2
88.9Defence55.6
88.9Form44.4
80.2Power43.6
1.65xG0.54