Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Start W · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-0 (15%), 5-0 (13%), 3-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Start W 4-0 Klepp W
Original prediction
Start W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.02 | 92.3% | 66.1% | -26.3 pts |
| Draw | 15.21 | 6.2% | 18.0% | 11.8 pts |
| Away | 63.33 | 1.5% | 15.9% | 14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–015%
- 2.5–013%
- 3.3–013%
Predicted outcome
Start W
Probability
66.1%
Model confidence
66.1%
Start W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Start WWWWLW
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Klepp WLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 18 · avg 0.20/3.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
Start WKlepp W
82.4Attack35.3
64.7Defence0.0
86.3Form17.6
78.1Power20.4
4.50xG0.60