Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Valerenga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Start are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 3.60 conceded, while Valerenga are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Valerenga hold a 15.3-point power-rating edge (28.6 v 43.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.7% in the Eliteserien, while Valerenga holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Valerenga
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
10.7%
Valerenga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 18 · avg 1.20/3.60
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40