Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Start · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Start 2-4 Ham-Kam
Original prediction
Start
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 48.3% | 37.2% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.3% | 26.8% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.53 | 26.4% | 35.9% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Start
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Start has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StartWWLWW
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Ham-KamLWLLD
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
StartHam-Kam
34.9Attack46.0
30.2Defence30.2
25.4Form36.5
32.5Power39.1
1.55xG1.81