Stargard Szczecińskivs
Lipno Stęszew
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 10/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stargard Szczeciński · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stargard Szczeciński 3-4 Lipno Stęszew
Original prediction
Stargard Szczeciński
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 64.4% | 45.9% | -18.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.61 | 19.6% | 25.0% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 5.61 | 16.1% | 29.1% | 13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Stargard Szczeciński
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Stargard Szczeciński has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00